The government’s Clean Power 2030 plan targets a ~95% clean grid by 2030.
The case for: NESO’s advice says it is achievable at the wire’s edge. The case against: the build rates it assumes have never been achieved in the UK.
Which assumptions in the plan deserve the most scrutiny? Bring the document, not the headline.
There are many reasons why we should not be bankrupting the country trying to do this. The often quoted political reason is that we produce less than 1% of global fossil CO2, thus we cannot significantly affect the global CO2 density. The more recent reason is that around 96% of the CO2 in the atmosphere comes from the ocean.
Hermann Harde has shown in a number of papers that the exchange of CO2 with the ocean and land means that the residence time (half life) of any CO2 produced is only about 3.8 years. Meanwhile, the planet has been warming (from other causes) causing a higher density of CO2 to be exhausted from the oceans and soils into the atmosphere.
Of course the IPCC do not agree because it does not suit their purpose. They created the thought that fossil fuels are a problem by suggesting that the fossil CO2 is different from natural CO2. They further stated that fossil CO2 remained in the atmosphere for more than 100 years whereas natural CO2 remains for less than 5 years. The molecules are essentially identical.
One of the papers is here.
Nigel, thanks. Yours is the first reply on the Forum, and you came with a source, which is exactly the spirit.
One steer, though. The Forum is about the UK energy system: generation, the grid, costs and politics. The climate science argument has plenty of homes elsewhere, and if we open it here it will swallow every thread (I know I’d be tempted). So let’s take the plan’s goal as given and ask whether the plan delivers it.
Your first point is the one that counts for that. Britain produces about 0.8% of the world’s CO2. If we can’t move the global total, Clean Power 2030 has to pay its way on bills and security of supply. Does it? And which of its assumptions would you test first?